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Scenarios Assessment

The Scenarios Working Group considered the possible evolution of ecosystem services during the twenty-first century by developing four global scenarios exploring plausible future changes in drivers, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and human well-being.

Three of four detailed scenarios examined by the Scenarios Working Group suggest that significant changes in policies, institutions, and practices can mitigate some but not all of the negative consequences of growing pressures on ecosystems, but the changes required are substantial and are not currently under way.

Assessment report chapters

Contents, Foreword, Preface [pdf, 1640 KB]

01. MA Conceptual Framework [pdf, 394 KB]

02. Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective [pdf, 291 KB]

03. Ecology in Global Scenarios [pdf, 295 KB]

04. State of Art in Describing Future Changes in Ecosystem Services [pdf, 425 KB]

05. Rationale and Logics of the Scenarios [pdf, 490 KB]

06. Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios [pdf, 1619 KB]

07. Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Conditions and Services [pdf, 1492 KB]

08. Scenarios [pdf, 1872 KB]

09. Ecosystem Services across Scenarios [pdf, 4072 KB]

10. Biodiversity Across Scenarios [pdf, 1936 KB]

11. Human Well-being Across Scenarios [pdf, 266 KB]

12. Trade-offs Among Ecosystem Services [pdf, 307 KB]

13. Synthesis: Lessons Learned [pdf, 427 KB]

14. Synthesis: Policy Implications [pdf, 603 KB]

Appendices [pdf, 4521 KB]

Scenarios Working Group


  • Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, USA
  • Prabhu Pingali, FAO, Italy 

Technical support

  • Dr. Elena Bennett
    Center for Limnology,
    University of Wisconsin – Madison
    Wisconsin, USA
  • Dr. Monika Zurek
    UN Food and Agriculture Organization - FAO (ESAE)
    Rome, Italy
© 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment